FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 31 August 2026
Braga 1–0 Vitória de GuimaraesMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 31 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Braga or draw at 82%. Bawler had Braga at 59%, the draw at 23% and Vitória de Guimaraes at 18%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Braga win
59%
Result
Draw
23%
Vitória de Guimaraes win
18%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Braga or draw
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.