Braga beat Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0. Bawler's model had Braga in front at 59% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Braga had 9 shots (4 on target) to Vitória de Guimaraes' 8 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Braga beat Vitória de Guimaraes 1–0. Bawler's model had Braga in front at 59% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 1 was scored. Braga had 9 shots (4 on target) to Vitória de Guimaraes' 8 (2), with 54% of the ball against 46%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 0.2.
Braga 1–0 Vitória de Guimaraes, played on 31 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Braga 59%, the draw 23% and Vitória de Guimaraes 18%.
Full-time: Possession 54%–46%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.2, Shots 9–8, Shots on target 4–2, Shots inside box 6–2, Big chances 2–1, Corners 2–2, Saves 2–3, Fouls 11–18, Offsides 5–1, Yellow cards 2–3.
No. It finished 1–0, so Vitória de Guimaraes failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 52% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Braga or draw 82%, it finished Braga won (59% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 52%, it finished No; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 54%, it finished Missed.