> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Saturday 20 Jun, 00:30 UTC
Brazil vs Haiti
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 2.5 Goals sits at 71% probability because Brazil's xG (1.49) and Haiti's (1.23) combine for a 2.72 total that strongly favors goal-heavy outcomes.
Win probability
40.1% home31.4% draw28.5% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
BrazilstepHaiti
1.49Base xG · rolling 26-match1.23
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.23
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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home windrawaway win
> STAR_PICKS · player props
top 3Probabilities from a per-player calibrated model on club xG / form, scaled to international minutes. Updated daily.
> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+