FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Brentford 1–1 SunderlandMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Brentford or draw at 79%. Bawler had Brentford at 55%, the draw at 25% and Sunderland at 21%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brentford win
55%
Draw
25%
Result
Sunderland win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Brentford to win
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Brentford's pursuit of European qualification at home meets a Sunderland side with nothing to chase, and the hosts' 1.86 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals a 78% forecast."