FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Bristol City 0–2 MillwallMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 15 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bristol City at 42%, draw at 31%, Millwall at 27%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Bristol City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
42%
Draw
31%
Millwall win
27%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost