FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Bristol City 0–2 MillwallMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bristol City or draw at 73%. Bawler had Bristol City at 42%, the draw at 31% and Millwall at 27%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bristol City win
42%
Draw
31%
Millwall win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.