FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Bristol City 2–1 PortsmouthMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bristol City or draw at 68%. Bawler had Bristol City at 40%, the draw at 28% and Portsmouth at 32%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bristol City win
40%
Result
Draw
28%
Portsmouth win
32%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Bristol City's lack of stakes with four games left contrasts sharply with Portsmouth fighting relegation, yet the xG gap of just 0.26 keeps this tight—the model's high-confidence call is Portsmouth or draw at 63%."