FT · England: Championship · Friday, 18 September 2026
Bristol City 1–0 WatfordMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bristol City or draw at 67%. Bawler had Bristol City at 40%, the draw at 28% and Watford at 33%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Bristol City win
40%
Result
Draw
28%
Watford win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 74% because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat—Bristol City's 1.40 xG and Watford's 1.26 xG combine for a high-volume fixture."