FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Burnley 1–1 Derby CountyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 76%. Bawler had Burnley at 51%, the draw at 25% and Derby County at 24%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
51%
Draw
25%
Result
Derby County win
24%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Burnley's 0.60 expected-goals advantage and Zian Flemming's 32% of team creation power make the Burnley or draw forecast (77% confidence) the model's clearest call, with home unbeaten as the likeliest outcome."