How it finished
Burnley and Derby County drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Burnley at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Burnley had 6 shots (2 on target) to Derby County's 14 (6), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Burnley vs Derby County?
Burnley and Derby County drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Burnley at 51% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Burnley had 6 shots (2 on target) to Derby County's 14 (6), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 0.5 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Derby County?
Burnley 1–1 Derby County, played on 19 Sept 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Burnley 51%, the draw 25% and Derby County 24%.
What were the stats in Burnley vs Derby County?
Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 0.5–1.2, Shots 6–14, Shots on target 2–6, Shots inside box 4–8, Big chances 1–1, Corners 4–5, Saves 3–1, Fouls 9–12, Offsides 3–4, Yellow cards 4–2.
Did both teams score in Burnley vs Derby County?
Yes — both Burnley and Derby County scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Burnley vs Derby County right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Burnley or draw 76%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 78%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 55%, it finished Missed.