FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Burnley 1–1 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Burnley or draw at 65%. Bawler had Burnley at 37%, the draw at 28% and Middlesbrough at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
37%
Draw
28%
Result
Middlesbrough win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.3
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.