How it finished
Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Burnley at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Burnley had 11 shots (3 on target) to Middlesbrough's 10 (2), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Burnley at 37% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 2. Burnley had 11 shots (3 on target) to Middlesbrough's 10 (2), with 42% of the ball against 58%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.2.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough, played on 02 Sept 2026 in the ENGLAND: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Burnley 37%, the draw 28% and Middlesbrough 35%.
What were the stats in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Full-time: Possession 42%–58%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.2, Shots 11–10, Shots on target 3–2, Shots inside box 6–4, Big chances 0–3, Corners 5–1, Saves 1–2, Fouls 11–8, Offsides 2–6, Yellow cards 2–2.
Did both teams score in Burnley vs Middlesbrough?
Yes — both Burnley and Middlesbrough scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Burnley vs Middlesbrough right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Burnley or draw 65%, it finished Draw (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 73%, it finished Landed.