FT · England: Championship · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Burnley 2–2 West Ham UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was West Ham United or draw at 66%. Bawler had Burnley at 34%, the draw at 28% and West Ham United at 37%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Burnley win
34%
Draw
28%
Result
West Ham United win
37%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Burnley or draw
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Burnley's desperate fight to escape the relegation zone contrasts sharply with West Ham's comfort, yet the hosts generate superior expected goals (1.49 vs 1.16), making the 65% forecast for Burnley or draw reflect their desperation-driven edge at home."