FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
C.D. Nacional 1–3 AlvercaMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was C.D. Nacional or draw at 67%. Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 40%, the draw at 27% and Alverca at 33%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
C.D. Nacional win
40%
Draw
27%
Alverca win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Nacional's superior xG (1.42 to 1.28) and 40% win probability underpin the high-confidence forecast for Over 1.5 Goals at 75%, with both sides capable of breaching a thin defensive margin."