How it finished
Alverca beat C.D. Nacional 3–1. Bawler's model favoured C.D. Nacional at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Alverca 33%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. C.D. Nacional had 13 shots (3 on target) to Alverca's 10 (7), with 57% of the ball against 43%. On expected goals it was 2.2 to 1.2, so C.D. Nacional created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?
Alverca beat C.D. Nacional 3–1. Bawler's model favoured C.D. Nacional at 40% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Alverca 33%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. C.D. Nacional had 13 shots (3 on target) to Alverca's 10 (7), with 57% of the ball against 43%. On expected goals it was 2.2 to 1.2, so C.D. Nacional created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?
C.D. Nacional 1–3 Alverca, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with C.D. Nacional 40%, the draw 27% and Alverca 33%.
What were the stats in C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?
Full-time: Possession 57%–43%, Expected goals (xG) 2.2–1.2, Shots 13–10, Shots on target 3–7, Shots inside box 10–5, Big chances 4–2, Corners 2–0, Saves 4–3, Fouls 7–16, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 0–3.
Did both teams score in C.D. Nacional vs Alverca?
Yes — both C.D. Nacional and Alverca scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Alverca right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said C.D. Nacional or draw 67%, it finished Alverca won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Landed.