FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 30 August 2026
C.D. Nacional 2–3 EstrelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was C.D. Nacional or draw at 71%. Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 46%, the draw at 26% and Estrela at 29%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
C.D. Nacional win
46%
Draw
26%
Estrela win
29%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 2.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
C.D. Nacional or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.