How it finished
Estrela beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Bawler's model favoured C.D. Nacional at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Estrela 29%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. C.D. Nacional had 10 shots (5 on target) to Estrela's 14 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 2.1.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 72%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
Estrela beat C.D. Nacional 3–2. Bawler's model favoured C.D. Nacional at 46% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Estrela 29%. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. C.D. Nacional had 10 shots (5 on target) to Estrela's 14 (4), with 51% of the ball against 49%. Expected goals finished 0.8 to 2.1.
What was the final score in C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
C.D. Nacional 2–3 Estrela, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with C.D. Nacional 46%, the draw 26% and Estrela 29%.
What were the stats in C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
Full-time: Possession 51%–49%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–2.1, Shots 10–14, Shots on target 5–4, Shots inside box 4–9, Big chances 1–4, Corners 4–3, Saves 1–3, Fouls 12–9, Offsides 1–1, Yellow cards 2–1.
Did both teams score in C.D. Nacional vs Estrela?
Yes — both C.D. Nacional and Estrela scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Estrela right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said C.D. Nacional or draw 71%, it finished Estrela won (29% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.