FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
C.D. Nacional 0–4 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Famalicao or draw at 72%. Bawler had C.D. Nacional at 28%, the draw at 28% and FC Famalicao at 44%. The match finished 0–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
C.D. Nacional win
28%
Draw
28%
FC Famalicao win
44%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.5
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 73%, grounded in a combined 2.57 expected goals despite Nacional and Famalicão's narrow quality gap of 0.30 xG."