FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Casa Pia 0–1 MoreirenseMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Casa Pia or draw at 67%. Bawler had Casa Pia at 39%, the draw at 29% and Moreirense at 33%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Casa Pia win
39%
Draw
29%
Moreirense win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 71%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.