How it finished
Moreirense beat Casa Pia 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Casa Pia at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Moreirense 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Casa Pia had 14 shots (2 on target) to Moreirense's 6 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.3, so Casa Pia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 76%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Moreirense beat Casa Pia 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Casa Pia at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Moreirense 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Casa Pia had 14 shots (2 on target) to Moreirense's 6 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.3, so Casa Pia created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia 0–1 Moreirense, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Casa Pia 39%, the draw 29% and Moreirense 33%.
What were the stats in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.3, Shots 14–6, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 10–3, Big chances 1–2, Corners 5–1, Saves 4–2, Fouls 14–18, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
No. It finished 0–1, so Casa Pia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Casa Pia or draw 67%, it finished Moreirense won (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 71%, it finished Missed.