FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Celta Vigo 0–2 Athletic ClubMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 73%. Bawler had Celta Vigo at 46%, the draw at 27% and Athletic Club at 27%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celta Vigo win
46%
Draw
27%
Athletic Club win
27%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
The match produced 0.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Medium confidence
Celta Vigo or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.