FT · Spain: La Liga · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Celta Vigo 1–2 OsasunaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celta Vigo or draw at 75%. Bawler had Celta Vigo at 49%, the draw at 27% and Osasuna at 25%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celta Vigo win
49%
Draw
27%
Osasuna win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.1 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
Celta Vigo or draw
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Celta Vigo defends a European spot at home against a side with nothing to chase, and the model's 1.62 xG advantage translates to a 75% forecast for Over 1.5 Goals."