FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Celtic 2–1 FalkirkMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic to win at 71%. Bawler had Celtic at 71%, the draw at 18% and Falkirk at 11%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
71%
Result
Draw
18%
Falkirk win
11%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.9
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Celtic to win
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Celtic's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.54 expected-goals edge to make a Home Win the high-confidence forecast at 71% probability."