FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Celtic 0–1 RangersMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Celtic or draw at 74%. Bawler had Celtic at 51%, the draw at 23% and Rangers at 26%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
51%
Draw
23%
Rangers win
26%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.4
Total 3.3
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Medium confidence
Celtic to win
Pre-match: 51%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% confidence because Celtic's 2.03 expected goals substantially outpaces Rangers' 1.26, creating a 0.77 xG gap that historically translates to multiple-goal matches."