FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
CF Montréal 1–1 D.C. UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was CF Montréal or draw at 70%. Bawler had CF Montréal at 39%, the draw at 31% and D.C. United at 30%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
CF Montréal win
39%
Draw
31%
Result
D.C. United win
30%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.3
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
D.C. United to win
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.