USA: MLSSaturday 25 Jul, 23:30 UTC

CF Montréal vInter Miami CF

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.28 goals expected
CF Montréal 40%Draw 28%Inter Miami CF 32%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
84%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 84% because both sides project 3.28 combined xG, with Montréal's home edge (1.74 xG) built on attacking setup that Messi's creativity can't fully neutralize for visiting Miami.

How we get there
CF MontréalstepInter Miami CF
1.54Base xG · rolling 26-match1.64
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.74Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.54
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
84%
Over 3.5 goals
29%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

CF Montréal average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). Inter Miami average 4.7 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
6
4
2
1
1
7
10
8
4
2
2
6
9
7
3
1
3
3
5
4
2
1
4
1
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

CF Montréal vs Inter Miami — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between CF Montréal and Inter Miami — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: CF Montréal 40% · draw 28% · Inter Miami 32%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
CF Montréal 01 Inter Miami CF
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.