USA: MLSSaturday 01 Aug, 23:30 UTC

CF Montréal vNew England Revolution

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.85 goals expected
CF Montréal 45%Draw 30%New England Revolution 25%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% because Montréal's 1.66 xG dominates New England's 1.20, creating a 0.46 gap that suggests enough attacking volume for multiple goals.

How we get there
CF MontréalstepNew England Revolution
1.46Base xG · rolling 26-match1.27
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.66Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.20
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Over 3.5 goals
22%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

CF Montréal average 5.8 corners per game at home this season (24 competitive matches). New England Revolution average 4.8 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
7
4
2
1
10
11
7
3
1
2
8
9
6
2
1
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Harry Kane
New England Revolution · Bayern Munich
60%
To score
Bukayo Saka
New England Revolution · Arsenal
42%
To score
Jude Bellingham
New England Revolution · Real Madrid
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

CF Montréal vs New England Revolution — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between CF Montréal and New England Revolution — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: CF Montréal 45% · draw 30% · New England Revolution 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
CF Montréal 22 New England Revolution
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.