FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Charlotte FC 0–1 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 27 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 65%. Bawler had Charlotte FC at 40%, the draw at 25% and Chicago Fire FC at 35%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlotte FC win
40%
Draw
25%
Chicago Fire FC win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.2
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% confidence as Charlotte's 1.69 xG and Chicago's 1.56 xG combine for a 3.25 total that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal contest."