FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Charlotte FC 3–1 Columbus CrewMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 16 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Charlotte FC at 41%, the draw at 31% and Columbus Crew at 28%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlotte FC win
41%
Result
Draw
31%
Columbus Crew win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.