FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Charlotte FC 0–0 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 72%. Bawler had Charlotte FC at 46%, the draw at 26% and Houston Dynamo FC at 28%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Charlotte FC win
46%
Draw
26%
Result
Houston Dynamo FC win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−2.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 77%
Missed
Medium confidence
Charlotte FC or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 31%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 77% probability, driven by Charlotte's 0.39 xG advantage and the total expected chances reaching 2.79 — enough attacking volume for multiple tallies."