FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Charlton Athletic 2–1 Derby CountyMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026

Charlton Athletic
2–1
Charlton Athletic win
Derby County

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Charlton Athletic or draw at 76%. Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 43%, the draw at 33% and Derby County at 24%. The match finished 2–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Charlton Athletic win
43%
Result
Draw
33%
Derby County win
24%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.0
Total 2.4
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.0
From the match itself

The match produced 0.6 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Charlton Athletic or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Derby County to win
Pre-match: 20%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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