ENGLAND: ChampionshipSaturday 15 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Charlton Athletic vDerby County

Most likely scoreline
11
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
Charlton Athletic 43%Draw 33%Derby County 24%
Strongest call
Charlton Athletic or draw
77%
How we get there
Charlton AthleticstepDerby County
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Charlton Athletic or draw
77%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Derby County to win
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Charlton average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Derby average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Charlton vs Derby — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Charlton and Derby — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Charlton 43% · draw 33% · Derby 24%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Charlton Athletic 21 Derby County
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.