FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Charlton Athletic 1–0 Preston North EndMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026

Charlton Athletic
1–0
Charlton Athletic win
Preston North End

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Charlton Athletic or draw at 69%. Bawler had Charlton Athletic at 41%, the draw at 28% and Preston North End at 31%. The match finished 1–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

Charlton Athletic win
41%
Result
Draw
28%
Preston North End win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 0.9
From the match itself

The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Charlton's fight to escape the relegation zone clashes with Preston's nothing-to-play-for approach, creating the asymmetry that drives the model's high-confidence call for Over 1.5 Goals at 75%, despite a tight 1.48–1.22 xG gap."

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