USA: MLSSunday 16 Aug, 22:00 UTC

Chicago Fire FC vPortland Timbers

Most likely scoreline
2–1
10% of the time · 3.23 goals expected
Chicago Fire FC 53%Draw 26%Portland Timbers 21%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
78%

Chicago's 0.80 expected-goals advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 78%-confidence call, with the Fire generating nearly twice Portland's attacking threat.

How we get there
Chicago Fire FCstepPortland Timbers
1.78Base xG · rolling 26-match1.29
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.01Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.22
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
78%
Not both teams to score
51%
Portland Timbers or draw
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Chicago Fire average 5.4 corners per game at home this season (26 competitive matches). Portland Timbers average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
8
10
6
2
1
2
8
10
6
2
1
3
5
7
4
2
4
3
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Chicago Fire FC fixtures & form →Portland Timbers fixtures & form →

Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Chicago Fire 53% · draw 26% · Portland Timbers 21%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Chicago Fire predictions & form →Portland Timbers predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.