FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Orlando City SC 1–2 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 63%. Bawler had Orlando City SC at 37%, the draw at 24% and Chicago Fire FC at 39%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Orlando City SC win
37%
Draw
24%
Chicago Fire FC win
39%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.7
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.