FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–0 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Colorado Rapids or draw at 71%. Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 46%, the draw at 25% and Real Salt Lake at 29%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Colorado Rapids win
46%
Result
Draw
25%
Real Salt Lake win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.4
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Missed
Medium confidence
Colorado Rapids or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 39%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 82%, backed by Colorado's 0.39 expected-goals edge and a combined 3.15 xG total that suggests both sides will find the net."