USA: MLSThursday 23 Jul, 01:30 UTC

Colorado Rapids vSan Diego FC

Most likely scoreline
11
10% of the time · 3.26 goals expected
Colorado Rapids 51%Draw 27%San Diego FC 23%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
84%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 84% because Colorado's 1.98 expected goals vastly outpaces San Diego's 1.29, signalling a comfortable attacking edge at home.

How we get there
Colorado RapidsstepSan Diego FC
1.75Base xG · rolling 26-match1.37
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.98Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.29
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
84%
Over 3.5 goals
29%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Colorado Rapids average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). San Diego average 4.0 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
4
5
3
1
1
8
10
6
3
1
2
7
10
6
3
1
3
5
6
4
2
1
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Colorado Rapids vs San Diego — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Colorado Rapids and San Diego — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Colorado Rapids 51% · draw 27% · San Diego 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Colorado Rapids 10 San Diego FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.