USA: MLSSaturday 25 Jul, 23:15 UTC

Columbus Crew vFC Cincinnati

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 3.07 goals expected
Columbus Crew 46%Draw 28%FC Cincinnati 25%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
81%

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because Columbus generates a decisive 0.50 xG edge (1.79 vs 1.28) with Diego Rossi controlling a quarter of their attacking output.

How we get there
Columbus CrewstepFC Cincinnati
1.58Base xG · rolling 26-match1.36
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.28
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Columbus Crew average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Cincinnati average 3.8 corners per game away from home this season (24 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
6
4
2
1
1
8
11
7
3
1
2
7
10
6
3
1
3
4
6
4
2
4
2
3
2
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Columbus Crew vs Cincinnati — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Columbus Crew and Cincinnati — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Columbus Crew 46% · draw 28% · Cincinnati 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Columbus Crew 21 FC Cincinnati
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.