FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 28 September 2026
Columbus Crew 2–1 Inter Miami CFMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 28 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Columbus Crew or draw at 62%. Bawler had Columbus Crew at 39%, the draw at 24% and Inter Miami CF at 38%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Columbus Crew win
39%
Result
Draw
24%
Inter Miami CF win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.7
Total 3.5
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 86% as Columbus (1.76 xG) and Miami (1.74 xG) arrive nearly level, with Messi's creative pull and Rossi's wing threat combining for a goal-heavy fixture."