FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Columbus Crew 1–3 New England RevolutionMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Columbus Crew or draw at 75%. Bawler had Columbus Crew at 50%, the draw at 25% and New England Revolution at 25%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Columbus Crew win
50%
Draw
25%
New England Revolution win
25%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 55%
Landed
Outside shot
New England Revolution to win
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 78%, driven by Columbus Crew's 0.56 xG advantage and Diego Rossi generating nearly a quarter of his team's attacking threat at home."