USA: MLSWednesday 22 Jul, 23:30 UTC

Columbus Crew vNew York City FC

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.57 goals expected
Columbus Crew 43%Draw 32%New York City FC 25%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
69%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 69% probability because Columbus's 1.49 xG and 0.41 edge over New York City's 1.08 creates a high-volume attacking setup at home.

How we get there
Columbus CrewstepNew York City FC
1.32Base xG · rolling 26-match1.15
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.49Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.08
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
69%
Both teams to score
51%
Draw
19%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Columbus Crew average 5.5 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). New York City average 3.4 corners per game away from home this season (26 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
8
4
2
1
11
12
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
5
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Columbus Crew vs New York City — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 10 May 2026, Columbus Crew have won 0, New York City have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
10 May 2026New York City 30 Columbus CrewUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Columbus Crew 43% · draw 32% · New York City 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Columbus Crew 12 New York City FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.