FT · Italy: Serie A · Monday, 14 September 2026
Como 2–1 ParmaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Como to win at 69%. Bawler had Como at 69%, the draw at 20% and Parma at 10%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Como win
69%
Result
Draw
20%
Parma win
10%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.7
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Como to win
Pre-match: 69%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Como's home win forecast (69%) rests on a decisive 1.38 expected-goals advantage, with the hosts generating 2.05 xG against Parma's 0.66."