FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Coventry City 1–3 Aston VillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Aston Villa or draw at 72%. Bawler had Coventry City at 28%, the draw at 25% and Aston Villa at 47%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Coventry City win
28%
Draw
25%
Aston Villa win
47%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.7
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Aston Villa or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast (79%) because Aston Villa's 1.69 xG—led by Ollie Watkins's shot dominance—combined with Coventry's 1.25 xG creates a 0.44 gap that points to an open, attacking contest."