How it finished
Aston Villa beat Coventry City 3–1. Bawler's model had Aston Villa in front at 47% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Coventry City had 15 shots (5 on target) to Aston Villa's 18 (9), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 2.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Coventry City vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa beat Coventry City 3–1. Bawler's model had Aston Villa in front at 47% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 4. Coventry City had 15 shots (5 on target) to Aston Villa's 18 (9), with 43% of the ball against 57%. Expected goals finished 0.7 to 2.6.
What was the final score in Coventry City vs Aston Villa?
Coventry City 1–3 Aston Villa, played on 16 Sept 2026 in the England: EFL Cup. Bawler's model had gone into it with Coventry City 28%, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 47%.
What were the stats in Coventry City vs Aston Villa?
Full-time: Possession 43%–57%, Expected goals (xG) 0.7–2.6, Shots 15–18, Shots on target 5–9, Shots inside box 5–14, Big chances 0–4, Corners 2–8, Saves 6–4, Fouls 17–12, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 3–3.
Did both teams score in Coventry City vs Aston Villa?
Yes — both Coventry City and Aston Villa scored, finishing 1–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Coventry City vs Aston Villa right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Aston Villa or draw 72%, it finished Aston Villa won (47% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 79%, it finished Landed.