World: World CupSaturday 27 Jun, 21:00 UTC

Croatia vGhana

Most likely scoreline
11
11% of the time · 2.83 goals expected
Croatia 52%Draw 29%Ghana 20%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
81%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because Croatia's 1.79 xG dominates Ghana's 1.04, and Kramarić's 22% of team output gives the hosts a sharp scoring edge at home.

How we get there
CroatiastepGhana
1.79Base xG · rolling 26-match1.04
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.79Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.04
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Under 2.5 goals
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Ghana average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
6
3
1
1
11
11
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
3
6
6
3
1
4
3
3
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Antoine Semenyo
Ghana · Bournemouth
38%
To score
Iñaki Williams
Ghana · Athletic Bilbao
36%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Croatia vs Ghana — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Croatia and Ghana — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Croatia 52% · draw 29% · Ghana 20%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Croatia 21 Ghana
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.