FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Croatia 1–2 SpainMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

Croatia
1–2
Spain win
Spain

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Spain to win at 83%. Bawler had Croatia at 5%, the draw at 12% and Spain at 83%. The match finished 1–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Croatia win
5%
Draw
12%
Spain win
83%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
0.5 – 2.8
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.1
From the match itself

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Spain to win
Pre-match: 83%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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