How it finished
Spain beat Croatia 2–1. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 83% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Croatia had 10 shots (5 on target) to Spain's 10 (3), with 28% of the ball against 72%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.1, so Croatia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 77%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Croatia vs Spain?
Spain beat Croatia 2–1. Bawler's model had Spain in front at 83% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. Croatia had 10 shots (5 on target) to Spain's 10 (3), with 28% of the ball against 72%. On expected goals it was 1.2 to 1.1, so Croatia created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Croatia vs Spain?
Croatia 1–2 Spain, played on 06 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Croatia 5%, the draw 12% and Spain 83%.
What were the stats in Croatia vs Spain?
Full-time: Possession 28%–72%, Expected goals (xG) 1.2–1.1, Shots 10–10, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 9–7, Big chances 4–3, Corners 3–6, Saves 1–4, Fouls 12–10, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 4–2, Red cards 1–0.
Did both teams score in Croatia vs Spain?
Yes — both Croatia and Spain scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 39% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Croatia vs Spain right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Spain to win 83%, it finished Spain won (83% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 39%, it finished Yes.