FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Crystal Palace 4–0 Lech PoznanMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 17 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Crystal Palace to win at 65%. Bawler had Crystal Palace at 65%, the draw at 20% and Lech Poznan at 15%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Crystal Palace win
65%
Result
Draw
20%
Lech Poznan win
15%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 1.0
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Crystal Palace to win
Pre-match: 65%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Crystal Palace's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.24 xG advantage, with Mateta and Sarr controlling 56% of the side's attacking threat against a visiting team generating just 1.03 expected goals."