FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
D.C. United 1–2 Charlotte FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Charlotte FC or draw at 64%. Bawler had D.C. United at 36%, the draw at 26% and Charlotte FC at 38%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
D.C. United win
36%
Draw
26%
Charlotte FC win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.9 – 0.9
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 78% because both teams carry nearly identical attacking threat—D.C. United 1.46 xG, Charlotte 1.41—suggesting a high-volume scoring environment."