USA: MLSSaturday 25 Jul, 23:30 UTC

D.C. United vToronto FC

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.51 goals expected
D.C. United 43%Draw 32%Toronto FC 25%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
68%

Over 1.5 Goals sits at 68% probability because D.C. United's 0.40 xG advantage and dominant shot creation (1.46 xG vs 1.05) should pressure Toronto into an open, goal-heavy contest at home.

How we get there
D.C. UnitedstepToronto FC
1.29Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.46Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.05
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
68%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Draw
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

D.C. United average 4.9 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). Toronto average 4.2 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
12
12
7
2
1
2
9
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

D.C. United vs Toronto — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between D.C. United and Toronto — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: D.C. United 43% · draw 32% · Toronto 25%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
D.C. United 21 Toronto FC
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.