Derby County v
Lincoln City
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 65% probability because Derby's 1.40 xG significantly outpaces Lincoln's 0.99, creating enough scoring volume to clear the line despite a modest 2.39 total xG.
Derby CountystepLincoln CityModel probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Derby average 5.3 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches).
More predictions for these teams
Derby vs Lincoln City — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Derby and Lincoln City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Derby 43% · draw 33% · Lincoln City 24%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Derby County 1–2 Lincoln CityModel estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.